Perhaps not very likely, given the usefulness of the Cape as a
waystation to India, and British annoyance over Holland's friendly
attirude to the North American rebels, but say that post-Napoleonic
wars the Dutch are in control of South Africa. How does the country
develop?
Will there be a Boertrek? OTL British-Dutch friction, and in
particular British meddling in how the locals were allowed to treat
the Black population, culminating in the abolishment of slavery in
1834, were the triggering elements. A Dutch-run south Africa might be
rather slower in doing such things: OTL, the Dutch didn't get rid of
slavery in the Caribbean till 1861 (if the hastily looked-up online
reference is correct). The colonization of today's northern S. Africa
might be slowed by decades: the Zulu might have more time to create a
coherent state, or the ****tugese might move into the area: or the
British might steal a march on the Dutch by establi****ng a foothold on
the east coast/Natal (OTOH, that _is_ a rather nasty area, even today,
for ****pping).
OTOH, if the Dutch government clashes badly with the locals, we might
get some sort of inland trek anyway: with a weaker metropole in
control of the cape, might the *Trekkers succeed as they did not OTL
in establi****ng some states in the interior which last well into the
20th century?
Effects on the world - and the British - economy if south African
goldmines do not open up until, say, 30 years later than OTL? Is South
Africa an economic plus or a minus for the Dutch before then?
Even if there is no Boer exodus, how long until Dutch south Africa
manages to fingale Canada-levels of self-government? (Indeed, if there
is no Boer exodus, this seems likely to occur earlier - higher
percentage of disgruntled local-borns). If there is an invasion of the
Netherlands in *WWI or *WWII, does a Dutch government-in-exile move to
South Africa?
If the British don't find another good spot to place a waystation to
India, the Cape is going to remain a major ****t and revictualing spot
for British ****ps en route to India and places beyond. Keeping the
Dutch friendly may be more of a political priority than OTL.
Black-white relations? Judging from OTL Dutch colonial experience,
probably poor. If the northern and eastern parts of OTL South Africa
never become incor****ated into the Cape (perhaps a Zulu-dominated
colony/puppet regime and an inland settler colony largely autonomous
from Holland), is there a concerted effort to make it "African-free"
rather than merely an Apartheid state?
And where does Cecil Rhodes direct his outsized energies, assuming he
isn't butterflied away?
best,
Bruce
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