Greetings and salutations.
I'm assuming that the Red Army does worse, and the Poles do a better
job of getting the Ukranians on their side.
A peace treaty is eventually hammered out in which Poland's eastern
border from a bit south of Minsk is along the Dneiper - probably later
than OTL, since the Soviets will be rather unhappier than OTL with the
"facts on the ground." For the nonce, let's say it happens before 1921
ends (OTL the Peace of Riga was signed in March). The Ukranians get a
certain amount of autonomy within a Polish state less centralized than
OTL.
So, what develops from this?
Is there a Polish-Soviet second round somewhere in the 20s?
Without the agricultural and human resources of the western Ukraine,
how much harder does the USSR have it? (Did the smaller-than-2008 OTL
Soviet Ukraine pre-1939 had the majority of it's population east of
the Dneiper?).
Assuming that he still gets the top spot in spite of all the
butterflies, Stalin probably is less worried about Ukranian
separatism, eastern Ukraine being more Russified than the western
bits. Is the program of terror-famine carried out as energetically as
OTL in a "safer" rump Ukraine?
The new Polish state is now something closer to 50% than 30% non-
Polish: are the necessary compromises made to keep the unwieldy state
together? (A federal Poland? A democratic Poland?)Or will Polish
chauvinism lead to either disintegration or an even nastier
dictator****p than OTL?
Comprising more of the area of the "Pale", Poland has even more Jews
than OTL. Probably the Poles aren't happy about this, but at least
more of said Jews will have a chance of getting out while the gettin's
good.
Romania no longer has a border with the USSR - effects on it's
politics? If there is a *Munich crisis, Soviet men and materials
cannot even be theoretically sent through Romania.
And speaking of *Munich - will this more successful Poland be as
bitter about the Czechs obtaining the Teschen as OTL? Might they be
more willing than OTL to sup****t the use of military force to keep the
Germans out of the Sudetenland, or would the probably nastier
relations with the USSR make them too worried about a Soviet "stab in
the back" to participate in any pressuring of Germany?
Bruce
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