Say he picks up something on his expedition to India and dies of
natural causes not long after getting back to his capital. The
succession to his son Reza Qoli Mirza - which he hasn't blinded yet -
goes fairly smoothly, and the inevitable revolts are put down.
Now, at this time the empire he had conquered included the larger part
of what would be Afghanistan, and OTL Abdul Shah Durrani, the founder
of modern Afghanistan, was one of his chief generals, who revolted
after his death. ATL he doesn't get the chance to pull it off, and
ends up being bumped off at some point by a suspicious Reza.
So, no Durrani empire. The oversize empire created by Nader Shah is
probably not sustainable - even if his son were an equal genius, the
necessary military force to hold it all together was just too
expensive. At the very least, Iraq is going back to the Ottomans once
they get their act together.
That being said, is it possible for a surviving Afshar dynasty to hold
on to most of Afghanistan, even if as a shaky and thinly-governed
"borderland", into the 19th century? What happens when the British
show up?
Bruce
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