What if the Great Northern War did not happen in OTL time-frame?
In 1697 Prince de Conti was proclaimed as the King of Poland but,
partially thanks to his reluctance to leave France, by the time he
reached Gdansk August of Saxony managed to took his place. What if
this did not happen?
Unlike August, de Conti would not have his own independent military
force or a source of income so he would be much more dependent on the
Polish artistocracy. However, if he was going to conduct generally pro-
French policy, this would probably mean better relations with both
Ottomans and Sweden. The better relations with the Ottomans and even a
separate peace in 1697 probably would not prevent the Ottomans from
being defeated at Zenta but, with anti-Ottoman coalition broken, the
Austrians/imperialists would be in a worse position during the peace
negotiations and the war could continue into 1700 or even later.
On the Northern direction, pro-French Poland would create serious
problems with building anti-Sedish coalition. In OTL Saxony was,
initially, one of the main players of the 'Northern Alliance' but with
August NOT being King of Poland, Saxony is probably out of the picture
by the reasons of geography. With the King of Poland being pro-
Swedish, the whole Patkul's schema (transfering Livonia under Polish
control) would not make practical sense.
This would leave 2 players, Denmark and Russia. However, without what
looked at this time as a reasonably powerful military force (the
Saxons) Peter would hardly risk in 1699 to take openly anti-Swedish
position. In OTL, by the time when the Treaty of Preobrazenskoye was
signed he was satisfied with rather modest claims to Ingiria and
Estonia because nobody, including Peter, considered Russian army of
this time as an 'european force'.
This leaves only Denmark so, at best, there could be Swedish-Danish
War of a very limited scope (over Holstein?).
As a result, for the next few years Charles XII is more or less free
to act as he chooses. Couple possible scenarios:
1. Charles stays in Sweden (being a champion of the Protestantism, he
intensively disliked Louis XIV) and Swedish army remains a regional
'deterrent factor'. Eastern Baltics remains 'Swedish Lake' and,
generally, status quo is maintained for decade or more. Russia is not
getting access to the Baltics, Livonia and Estlandia are not
devastaed, St-Petersburg is not built, huge numbers of people are not
dead (both battle and 'construction' casualties). Peter is not getting
his 'Greatness' and Russia is not proclaimed Empire. Russian army does
not have a learning experience of the GNW (and no legend of Poltava).
Peter's military efforts are directed against the Ottomans with even
lesser chance for success than in OTL. All other attempts of the
reforms are going approximately the same way (meaning more noice and
losses than real results). A _potential_ positive impact is that,
instead of ex****ting raw materials to the West, Russia is expanding
ex****t of the manufactured products to the East (looks like a very
optimistic pipe dream but there is such a theory).
2. Charles decides to interfere into the War for the Spanish
Succession more or less as a French mercenary. This seriously changes
balance of force in Germany in French favor, providing he can get far
enough to make a direct contribution. Potentially, 20-30K of the
superbly trained Swedes led by Charles XII could present a substantial
danger to the Empire, especially on the early stages, when
Marlborough and Prince Eugene were not operating in Germany and
French, under Villars, had been victorious. In OTL, Villars was
insisting on marching to Vienna but was not sup****ted by Elector of
Bavaria. If anything, _this_ would be pretty much in Charles' style.
Germany could become a central theater of operations, which would
probably means the Prince Eugene would be commanding there and not in
Italy (and perhaps no French defeats in Italy). Massive Swedish
involvement far from home _may_ provoke Peter into attacking Ingiria
more or less on his own (along the same lines as his father did during
the Polish-Swedish War) with the things getting much closer to OTL and
the main difference that Charles is busy fighting even further from
home. Of course, unlike OTL, he could turn his attention toward Russia
much faster.
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