Re: What IF: ... Japan had more Oilers for Dec.7'41 ?

On Aug 28, 7:31=A0pm, dabrob <dab...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> On Aug 28, 5:04=A0pm, SilentOtto =A0wrote:
>
>
>
> > One does have to keep in mind that due to the shock and
> > disorganization caused by the sudden Japanese landings, much military
> > supply was out of position and =A0lost.
>
> > Had MacArthur's forces been initially bypassed, he would have a lot
> > more time to prepare for the landing that he would know, with almost
> > near certainty, would be coming.
>
> > If properly prepared to withstand an assault, meaning better prepared
> > positions and supplies properly relocated, the Philippines may never
> > fall to the forces the Japanese had available to take them.
>
> > I don't think the Japanese could tolerate the risk that the U.S. might
> > hold out, and giving MacArthur more time to prepare for an attack
> > would obviously increase that risk.
>
> > The IJA were well aware of the advantages bestowed by surprise, and I
> > just can't see the IJA willingly ceeding those advantages. =A0So, any
> > idea that the Philippines be initally bypassed would almost certainly
> > be quashed.
>
> Why do the Philipines really need to be taken at all ?

It's a bit much to expect Imperial military planners to accept a major
enemy bastion, even if somewhat suppressed, sitting on their vital
supply lines, don't you think?

> Once American air power there is broken (as it would be in my ATL just
> as it was historically via Japanese land based air flotilla attacks)
> and the limited US naval forces present driven off, what is the rush ?
> A watch and a bombing campaign can be maintained until sufficient IJA
> forces are freed up from other tasks, to invade there.

I think that the risk that air power could be revived would be
weighing heavily on Japanese planners minds, and that can't be made to
go away without some serious hand waving.

So far, your "what-if" has relied almost entirely on tweaking Japanese
strategy and tactics, to explore whether or not they could have gotten
a better than historical result from the attack on Pearl Harbor.

I think you've made a good case.

But, having them bypass the Philippines is a huge departure.

Someone once said that the surest way to achieve air supremacy is to
park your tank on their runway.

That's the approach Japan took historically and getting them to
deviate from that path isn't a little thing.

It's difficult to see how you can plausibly justify the imperial high
command taking such a decision.

But, if you're up to the challenge, I'm willing to keep reading.





> IIRC Japan wanted the rice crop, rubber and tin but most of that was
> obtainable from the former French Indo-China areas only just acquired.